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Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, this data collection was produced via a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia... more’s intensive-use agricultural land to 2050, under intersecting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land uses and assessed sustainability of economic returns and multiple ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cell) and temporal (annual) resolution.
Results available are for 648 scenarios covering combinations of four global outlooks, three general circulation climate models, three domestic land-use policies, three productivity growth rates, three land-use change adoption hurdle rates, and two capacity constraint settings.
Outputs included for each scenario are:
- annual land-use layers
- summary data table
- graphical dashboard summary
- animation of potential land-use change, drivers, and impacts
This analysis was conducted in conjunction with CSIRO’s Australian National Outlook initiative to assess future potential land-use change and the impacts for the sustainability of ecosystem services. A full description of the methods and synthesis of the results can be found in the papers listed in the Related Information below and freely available via email from the author.
The data is provided to support a national conversation on the future for Australian land systems, public decision-making and policy design, and further scientific research.
SIP 59 LUTO land use modelling science p - Modelling - Published 07 Jun 2016
The maps in this data base identify most profitable land use in 2050. The information plotted on the maps is classified by current and potential land use, for seven scenarios assuming new land markets... more and recent trend agricultural productivity. Each scenario assumes a different level of carbon payment for single-species plantings, expressed as a share of the maximum payment in the very strong abatement scenario. Differences in payment rate arise from the level of global abatement incentives, interacting with biodiversity settings. The analysis assumes that no land shifts from native vegetation (including forest, woodland, shrubland and grassland) to agricultural use. The H3 map is for balanced land market settings. The CSIRO Data Access portal provides individual PowerPoint slides for each scenario, individual .tif files for each scenario map. Access to the Australian National Outlook Report and Technical Report can be found at http://www.csiro.au/nationaloutlook/.less
Integration Science and Modelling (ISAM) - Modelling - Published 14 Mar 2016