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The NESP Tropical Cyclone Projections Portal is a website with interactive features designed to provide information on the historical and projected climatology of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the s... moreouthern hemisphere, with a particular focus on the Australian region.
Tropical cyclone tracks are displayed from periods within baseline and future climates simulated by CMIP5 Global Climate Models using the RCP 8.5 emissions pathway, as well as those observed historically and published in the WMO version of the IBTrACS global best-track archive (v03r10). Various other products are derived from these data sets, including climatologies of and changes in:
- spatial density of number of TCs per decade;
- density of storms impacting on Australia's coastline;
- the simulated number and seasonal cycle of TCs;
- relationship of projected change in Australian-region TCs with changes in temperature and precipitation in the region.
NESP ESCC Extreme weather projections - Tropical Cyclone Projections Portal - Published 27 Jun 2019
Historic and future 20-year climatologies of CMIP5 data on native model grid for annual, seasonal and monthly seasons. Up to 40 models from the CMIP5 archive are available.
Historic: ... more
2015-2034, 2020-2039, 2025-2044
2030-2049, 2035-2054, 2040-2059
2045-2064, 2050-2069, 2055-2074
2060-2079, 2065-2084, 2070-2089
2075-2094, 2080- 2099
historical, rcp26, rcp45, rcp60, rcp85
Seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON)
6-month seasons (NDJFMA, MJJASO)
Surface Temperature, Rainfall, Wind Speed, Solar Radiation,
Maximum Surface Temperature, Minimum Surface Temperature,
Drought, Extreme Rainfall (1-in20 Year), Evapotransporation
CLSD PCCSAP Climate Futures V2 - CMIP 5 model archive - Published 14 Jun 2019
Processed global climate model outputs and derived analysis from ‘historical’ and RCP simulations from CMIP5 models. A set of up to 26 models were used for all PACCSAP reporting, but some other models... more are now processed as well as part of the NRM and ACCSP projects.
Datasets are complete time series as well averages for 1986-2005, 2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079 and 2080-2099.
Derived variables are:
• Climatologies for each period
• Changes between periods (absolute and %)
• Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) extremes indices (e.g. annual maximums)
• Average recurrence interval (ARI) calculations of 1-year, 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year and 100-year events fro rainfall and temperature extremes
• Standardised precipitation index (SPI) of meteorological drought
• Area-average means and changes for each partner nation and each NRM cluster region for all fieldsless
CLSD PCCSAP 3.3.1 CMIP5 Model Evaluation - Climate model evaluation - Published 14 Jun 2019
Dynamically downscaled climate simulations for Victoria from 1961 to 2099 using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) r3355. An ensemble of Global Climate Models were downscaled (ACCESS1-0, CN... moreRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2, MIROC5 and NorESM1-M) from the CMIP5 archive for historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, as well as downscaling ERA-Interim. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) were bias corrected and the global atmosphere simulated at 50 km resolution with only SST forcing. The 50 km simulation was then downscaled to 5 km resolution over Victoria using CCAM’s variable resolution grid and a scale-selective filter. The dataset was created with support from Wine Australia, the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, the University of Tasmania, as well as CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere.less
DELWP Vic Climate Science Data - - Published 06 Feb 2019
Three empirically-derived indices of tropical cyclone genesis - Genesis Potential Index (labelled in files as "gpi"), Murakami-GPI ("GPIM") and Tippett Index ("TCGI") - have been applied to monthly ou... moretputs of a suite of CMIP5 models.
The indices each use combinations of monthly mean meteorological and sea surface temperature fields in order to indicate regions with favourable conditions for the generation of tropical cyclones (known as cyclogenesis).
The resulting outputs have been calculated over three time periods. Data are in the form of netCDF files containing time series of either seasonal or annual averages for each index. The files are arranged inside folders named after the CMIP5 model from which these products have been derived (note: these are not the official CMIP5 model names).
Index outputs are stored over each of the following periods:
- 1980 to 1999 (historical),
- 2046 to 2065 (rcp85), and
- 2081 to 2100 (rcp85)
where the bracketed text indicates the CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) used to provide the climate forcings for the simulation.
The seasonal time series files are labelled with the above year ranges, with a file name structure of:
The files containing annual average time series have file names of the form:
The [year] label in the annual average file names corresponds to the first year of one of the respective periods above, respectively:
- 2046, and
CLSD PCCSAP TC Downscaling & Coincident - CMIP 5 model analysis of tropical cyclone behaviour - Published 02 Jul 2015
This data collection consists of:
1. ASCII text files listing each tropical cyclone detected within output of a suite of CMIP5 models for the Pacific region contained by latitudes 20N to 40S, and long... moreitudes 135E to 150W; and
2. Global images of tropical cyclone densities derived from these detections, presented as either days per year or storms per year for a 5 x 5 degree longitude/latitude grid.
All tropical cyclones detected using the CSIRO Direct Detection and tracking algorithm within the above domain are presented in space-delimited ASCII text files for each model. Three time periods are available to select:
- from 1981 to 2000 ("baseline" period used for projections);
- from 2081 to 2100 ("future" period used for projections); and
- from 1950 to 2100 (all data).
There are two image types for each coupled model data source, both based on densities of storms within a 5 x 5 lon/lat degree box for the respective 20 year period (either 1981-2000 or 2081-2100):
- images containing "days" in the file name show the number of days per year in which a tropical cyclone was detected within that box
- images with "number" in the file name display the number of separate storms per year detected within that box.less