9-second gridded continental Australia need for assisted dispersal (50% similarity) for Vascular Plants 1990:2050 MIROC5 RCP 8.5 (CMIP5) (GDM: VAS_v5_r11)

Collection Title:

9-second gridded continental Australia need for assisted dispersal (50% similarity) for Vascular Plants 1990:2050 MIROC5 RCP 8.5 (CMIP5) (GDM: VAS_v5_r11)

Collection Description:

Need for assisted dispersal for Vascular Plants as a function of change in long term (30 year average) climates between the present (1990 centred) and projected future (2050 centred) under the MIROC5 model (RCP 8.5) based on Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM) of compositional turnover. The distance to the nearest grid cell with ecological s... moreimilarity of at least 0.5 is given. This metric describes the nature of the projected 2050 centred future environmental conditions for each 9s grid square. Using a Generalised Dissimilarity Model of compositional turnover (the effects of changing environment on changing species), each future location is compared with the continent in the present. For each cell, the metric looks out to all other cells in the continent, and records the ecological similarity of the future state of the cell to the most similar cell in the present. A value of 1 indicates that the future environment is similar to a current location in the present, and perfect analogue can found somewhere in Australia. A value of 0 indicates that the most similar environment to be found in the present is ecologically so different that we would expect no species in common, i.e. there are no current analogues for this environment; it is novel. Intermediate values show how ecologically similar the most similar cell is. However, no weight is given to the proximity of the most similar cell. The environment may be similar, but the cells thousands of kilometres apart. This metric was developed along with others for use in an assessment of the efficacy of the protected area system for biodiversity under climate change at continental and global scales, presented at the IUCN World Parks Congress 2014. It is described in the AdaptNRM Guide “Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: a community-level modelling approach”, available online at: www.adaptnrm.org. Data are provided in two forms: 1. Zipped ESRI float grids: Binary float grids (*.flt) with associated ESRI header files (*.hdr) and projection files (*.prj). After extracting from the zip archive, these files can be imported into most GIS software packages, and can be used as other binary file formats by substituting the appropriate header file. 2. ArcGIS layer package (*.lpk): These packages contain can be unpacked by ArcGIS as a raster with associated legend. Additionally a short methods summary is provided in the file 9sMethodsSummary.pdf for further information. Layers in this 9s series use a consistent naming convention: BIOLOGICAL GROUP _ FROM BASE_ TO SCENARIO_ ANALYSIS e.g. A_90_CAN85_S or R_90_MIR85_L where BIOLOGICAL GROUP is A: amphibians, M: mammals, R: reptiles and V: vascular plants less

Field of Research:

Community Ecology ;  Conservation and Biodiversity ;  Ecological Impacts of Climate Change ;  Global Change Biology

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4225/08/5588BA5D0E0F6

Start Date:

20 Jun 2015

End Date:

20 Jun 2015

Contact:CSIRO Enquiries
 CSIROEnquiries@csiro.au
 1300 363 400
Keywords:

Vascular Plants ;  generalised dissimilarity model ;  scaled environmental variables ;  1990 climates ;  historical climates, 2050 future climates ;  adaptnrm ;  biodiversity

Lineage:

Need for assisted dispersal was calculated calculated using the highly parallel bespoke CSIRO Muru software running on a LINUX high-performance-computing cluster, taking GDM model transformed environmental grids as inputs. The distance to the nearest future cell with an ecological similarity > 0.5 to the present cell was calculated. More detail of the calculations and methods are given in the document “BiodiversityModellingMethodsSummary.pdf” provided with the data download. GDM Model: Generalised dissimilarity model of compositional turnover in mammal species for continental Australia at 9 second resolution using ANHAT data extracted 2013 (GDM: VAS_v5_r11) Climate data. Models were built and projected using: a) 9-second gridded climatology for continental Australia 1976-2005: Summary variables with elevation and radiative adjustment b) 9-second gridded climatology for continental Australia 2036-2065 MIROC5 RCP 8.5 (CMIP5): Summary variables with elevation and radiative adjustment

Credit:

Tom Harwood, Simon Ferrier, Noboru Ota, Justin Perry, Kristen J Williams

Licence:

CSIRO Data Licence

Organisations:

CSIRO (Australia)

Attribution Statement:

Harwood, Tom; Williams, Kristen; Ferrier, Simon; Ota, Noboru; Perry, Justin (2014): 9-second gridded continental Australia need for assisted dispersal (50% similarity) for Vascular Plants 1990:2050 MIROC5 RCP 8.5 (CMIP5) (GDM: VAS_v5_r11). v1. CSIRO. Data Collection. https://doi.org/10.4225/08/5588BA5D0E0F6

Rights Statement:

All Rights (including copyright) CSIRO Australia 2014.

Access:

The metadata and files (if any) are available to the public.